Space Symposium Day 4

Inventing the Future for Space Superiority
11 April 2024

Dr. Andrew Gray, Manager, Office of Technology Maturation, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Dr. Steve Meier, Director, Naval Center for Space Technology, NRL

Dr. Andrew Metcalf, Space Enterprise Engagement Lead, AFRL

Dr. Andy Williams, Deputy Technology Executive Officer for Space, AFRL

Creating a Strong Ecosystem

Williams

-We’re always focused on how quickly we can pivot into new areas. We interact with the ecosystem and try to build it out in multiple different ways, innovation and invention.

-Invention is the long-term horizon work. As we get those science breakthroughs, we leverage research and what new architectures need to look like. We try to mature the technology so we can demonstrate it and then turn it over into industry. They then can propose it back for programs of record.

-Innovation, that’s how we take things that exist and use them in new ways. Easy example is the iPhone. They leveraged decades worth of technology and turned it into the iPhone. Getting after the technologies that are already created and leveraging them together.

Meier

-We have a vibrant ecosystem within NRL. We also work externally with the entire DOD community, NASA, all of the above as well as partners and commercial industry.

-What drives us is the fact that we work under a working capital funding model. Almost 100% of our money comes in from sponsors. We have to write white papers, do proposals.

-We’re having our first innovation day on May 16. You can sign up on sam.gov. Close off date is April 26.

Global Objectives Near-Term

Meier

-Many definitions of space superiority. To me it means maintaining dominance of threats. Also maintaining dominance in space during a conflict. Without space superiority, you’re going back to the eras of WWI and II of land, air, and sea battles.

-AI/ML, we’re doing things here. Our view is we’re focusing on unsupervised ML which is reinforcement learning. This is really useful in countering threats and reacting quickly. Our investments here are key.

-Space robotics, we are currently working a program RSGS. We’re building two robotic arms. Purpose is to tug, adjust maneuvers, high resolution imaging, bringing back dead satellites.

-Commercial industry augmenting space superiority, we’re looking at this. We’re also looking at cyber.

Gray

-Artemis program, there’s a whole series of technologies needed to sustain human life around the moon. On the science side there’s also a huge number of technologies involving sensors. The overlap here, there is some cross cutting tech. Advanced space computing is one as well as applying ML. Validation and verification where the stakes are very high. Another, compute power.

Williams

-AI/ML and getting after those challenges in a competitive environment. Creating the robust capabilities here and making sure we’re always providing the technology that’s required to maintain the edge in space superiority.

-How do we go after multi domain capabilities?

-For a true hybrid architecture we’ll be with allies and partners. How do we do these seamlessly both in the software and hardware pieces? This will be required for competitive endurance.

Technology Areas to Invest in 2040-2050 Timeframe

Gray

-At the top of the list, quantum sciences. We’re on a precipice of major breakthroughs in the labs. Quantum 2.0 sensors and using them to measure things we don’t even know how to measure now. This world is full of opportunity.

Meier

-AI/ML is relatively new to the space domain. Hardware aspect, one area we’re working on is processors. Suite of GPUs but also a network where the processor is simulating artificial neurons in the brain. We have one in our lab and we’re working on building it out. Key thing is it requires only 1% of the power and 1% of the heat of a standard processor which makes it so valuable to space.

-Cislunar is the wild west. If you have a processor like this, you’ll be able to operate and determine behaviors, maneuvers, etc.

Williams

-Quantum sciences is a big one. What’s real and what’s hype? What are the things that are real and can actually be harvested?

-AI/ML will continue to be an interesting topic.

-2050, what does information dominance look like?

-Space logistics. There’s a long-term element here. What does space look like in a true ecosystem that’s enabling space logistics and how do we make sure we have superiority here? This could extend to cislunar.

What Keeps You up at Night

Meier

-Cislunar is the next frontier. It’s the new high ground. This area is huge and it’s a three body problem. Orbits are unstable. Whoever owns cislunar will be in a much better position to have space superiority and dominance.

Williams

-Workforce. How do we make sure we have a competitive workforce?

-State of the industrial base and making sure we have an industrial base that’s competitive and can scale.

Gray

-Resource allocation. This challenge has never been greater than it is today. It’s a time of such excitement. How do we make the right investments?

[End]

Laying Out Details: The Latest from Acquisition Leaders

Mike Dickey, Founding Partner, Elara Nova

Col Bryon McClain, PEO, Space Domain Awareness and Combat Power, SSC

Col Joseph Roth, Director, Innovation & Prototyping Directorate, USSF; Commander, Space Systems Center

Col Erik Stockham, Director of Space Warfighting Acquisition Delta, Space Domain Awareness and Combat Power, SSC

Trey Treadwell, Associate Director, Capabilities, NGA

Implementing Calvelli & Kendall’s Framework

McClain

-I love the direction and opportunities we’re receiving. It allows us to look and think differently.

-Cavelli has been pushing a lot for fixed price contracting but that’s really just one element. We have to think about how we’re asking for capabilities. What capabilities exist and how can we roll it into our architecture?

-SDA CP we recently closed out an RFI. We’re doing well with amazing capability but the demand keeps growing and we’re trying to do market research. Traditionally we take a requirements document and send it out to industry. In this case, our RFI said here’s a mission area, what can you do today, right now? That’s a wide-open approach.

Treadwell

-Sometimes there’s a lot of risk in the fixed price contracts and some smaller companies can’t take that on. The tenets however are foundation, especially on the ground side.

-Leveraging the technologies developed on orbit, it’s about delivering capability and iterating on the ground and squeezing every last ounce of capability out.

Stockham

-Evolution of commercial and civil market. Question now is which things should government build and what can we buy that already exists? How can we leverage what industry is doing either for NASA or their own profit? That’s all underpinning.

Roth

-Exploit, buy, build. We’re trying to exploit what’s already on orbit and get more SDA and SSA data out? Let’s buy whatever we can. For SSC, we’re only building what we must.

-Col Kniseley helped create commercial strategy to get after what’s already out there.

Software/Hardware

Stockham

-Software is the way we make the capability keep up with the threat. It’s scalable in a way hardware hasn’t been.

-Mature technology isn’t the same thing as a mature system that can be fielded and maintained.

Roth

-Ground systems are really challenging. We have seven different ground systems where I am and we’re working to get to the cloud. We’re partnering with Space RCO. Cloud is going to be critical and we’re looking at all kinds of software.

McClain

-A lot of partnerships with industry. One of the challenges that we sometimes have, there’s hardware with a little bit of software and software with a little bit of hardware. Everyone is saying why don’t we just do everything in software?

-Moving from 4G to 5G, if we want 5G we need to get new phones. You can do a lot of software defined stuff but sometimes there’s a fixed point.

-I’d also be very cautious with software reuse. New code on old platforms, it sometimes doesn’t work that well.

-Industry dialogue and feedback will be critical.

-We’re trying to reorient everyone not on ‘what is my program’ but ‘what is the piece of this mission I’m delivering.’  What is the mission thread and how are we all fitting into it?

-SDA CP, there’s a lot that goes into this. There’s a lot both on the hardware and software side

Treadmill

– Where we’re going with JADC2, it’s exactly this. How do all of these things integrate and talk together.

-How does deterrence play into this? We don’t have to redevelop all of these things. We’re dealing with similar actors in space that we have in nuclear. We have to be able to react appropriately and decisively.

Dual Use Capabilities & Demand Signals to Industry

Roth

-Transition of technology from commercial is critically important. Technology areas I’m looking at that are supposed to be game changing, cloud-based systems and ground systems and leveraging software and putting it all to good use.

-Systems with multi level security, SDA, proliferating sensors, we’re working on all this.

-On orbit refueling and dynamic space operations. Really important to have maneuver. Our potential adversaries are flooding space with a lot of systems and we need to keep an eye on them.

-We’re doing a first capability of on orbit refueling in 2027 timeframe. Really important to the ecosystem. We’ve done this before, orbital express. It was critical.

McClain

-Potential with on orbit refueling is a huge need but is it a government driven market or is it an area where there’s a commercial need? We need to really understand this.

-Leveraging commercial, I need to have discussions with industry to understand their business cases and if I’m adding requirements that break those business cases. What are the really critical requirements? What’s a real commercial market vs a market that can be provided by a commercial service? That’s two different things.

Stockham

-Efficiency and effectiveness and not novel.

Treadmill

-As you build transition plans, always be thinking about second, third, fourth turns so you’re not tied up.

-IC we’re transitioning and looking to make sure we don’t create vendor lock. We need to do better at this.

-There are policy changes we need with bold steps forward when it comes to technology transitions.

[End]

Discussion on Status of DOD-DOC Cooperation on SSA/TraCSS

Travis Langster, Principal Director, Space and Missile Defense Policy, DOD

Richard DalBello, Director, Office of Space Commerce, NOAA

Mike French, Vice President, Space Systems, Aerospace Industries Association

Where DOD is Today

Langster

-Different teams meet weekly and are really focused on what the data needs are, the formats, what we want it to look like, and discussion on ensuring the safety of space flight safety.

-We’re making headway in post transition and sharing activities. What will DOD and OSC be doing and what will the impacts be?

Where OSC is Today

DalBello

-We finalized our procurement approach. We made awards. We released an RFI for the presentation layer. We’re working on demos. We issued contract awards for commercial data and provided feedback. We kicked off the pathfinder for LEO. We more than tripled the size of the staff.

-The primary operations center for TrACSS will be in Boulder, CO. The back up center will be in Maryland.

-Standards, we’re working with the UN and colleagues in the State Department on a global vision document.

Biggest Challenges

DalBello

-The quality and kind of people you need to do this, they aren’t already present in DOC and they’re hard to find outside. We are really trying to bring in talent.

-We have pushed from early on an agile development program which will be the first of its kind. We have senior level support for this.

-Another challenge, international alignment and having dialog globally about SSA matters.

Langster

-This is an international miss and the US has always had leadership and we want to maintain leadership. It’s important DOD can shift its focus but we need to make sure the transition is deliberate and the information that’s most valuable is getting to the right people.

Pace of TraCSS

DalBello

-Everyone wants this to be done quickly. Well we had to have money and we didn’t get our first full budget until 2023. There were a lot of moving parts. We have strong bipartisan support but it took a while to get all the pieces.

-Once we got that we can hire aggressively, which we’re doing. Once we have that we can press and move effectively.

-One of the challenges together that we face, the systems will be joined at the hip at the beginning but we’ll be taking in greater and greater sources. We want to make sure the DOD and Commerce catalog don’t get out of sync. We have to manage this and we’ve got a good start but we haven’t nailed this down yet.

-We are also frustrated with the pace.

Langster

-We’re trying to ensure that we’re all comfortable with what’s being delivered. It’s what’s needed.

Commercial Strategies

Langster

-DOD and USSF, these strategies play significantly. From DOD, our strategy talks about not just leveraging commercial but integrating them into systems, missions, architectures. We see SDA for military purposes, a shift in integrating commercial.

DalBello

-We had fundamental decisions to make at the front end of the program. We had to determine what can be outsourced completely. The logic is we’re offering a safety service and decided it should be government system using commercial technology.

-We’re driven by the responsibilities the US government has to authorize and supervise activities. We are providing safety information globally as well.

Pilots & Lessons Learned

DalBello

-One of the main lessons, there’s a tremendous amount of capability out there. We get a lot of great feedback. That is very heartening.

International Aspects & Commercial Data

Langster

-Sharing activities, that’s what the net working group’s focus is. What will this look like post transition? There’s some headway that’s been made and charters that have been established. I have a feeling DOD SSA sharing agreements will continue to exist for military purposes but we’re moving through this.

DalBello

-We wanted to avoid the necessity of bilateral agreements. We found with DOD it sometimes limits them. We’re in the middle of a broad dialogue were we set up a system that you opt in to and protocol and sharing is known up front. There’s still value in bilaterals for DOD but we didn’t see the necessity for this system.

-We’re also still working out data rights and how to go about that.

What’s Next This Year

Langster

-I would like to see that there is some phase of TraCSS that’s up and running and that has taken the lessons learned from the pilots and exercising the elements and services for spaceflight safety.

DalBello

-Congress wants us to turn on a system by the end of fiscal year. That’s the goal.

-I’m hoping by next year I’m telling you about how much great progress we’ve made in launch collision avoidance.

[End]

Former Leaders

Gen John Hyten, USAF (Ret.), Former Vice Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff

Lt Gen John Shaw, USSF (Ret.), Former Deputy Commander, USSPACECOM

Lt Gen Michael Hamel, USAF (Ret.), Former Commander, SMC, USAF; Former Lockheed Martin Vice President & General Manager, Commercial Space

How USSF & USSPACECOM Are Doing

Hamel

-I was originally really skeptical about the creation of a separate service. But now I think it was the right thing to be done. Overall, the foundation is being laid for what will be vitally, and I mean vitally in every sense of the word, important for our safety in the world.

Shaw

-I thought we needed a separate service and a separate command and we probably should have done it sooner. In the AF, space always didn’t quite fit just right. From a combatant command side… space could never really get the traction it deserves in terms of budget and resourcing. This has been good for us as a nation.

Hyten

-I wanted space, cyber, missile defense out of nuclear.

-There’s a couple things bothering me. USSF and USSPACECOM haven’t fully embraced their roles yet. There’s still confusion in the staff.

-Since I started in AQ, space is different than air and ground and using the same AQ process, it is not efficient. We’ve got to get past that.

Hamel

-What I’m really hoping is going to happen, normalizing relationships because in every combatant command, the presentation of the forces is the responsibility of the service. The operational level is fought by component commanders. I think it’ll be really important for the whole community to get over that hump.

-In every regional combatant command, there are dual responsibilities.

Shaw

-We’re doing a better job putting USSF service components into the combatant commands and it’s a necessary structure to have.

-If you’re a combatant commander you want components from all the services. You have to have this for Space Force.

Seniors in Joint Staff

Hyten

-The services are four stars, three stars, multiple two stars, and the USSF has I think a Col.

-Bring this forward and normalize the relationships

DOD Cost Overruns, Schedule Slips

Hamel

-We seem to admire the problem more than getting serious about how we get better value out of the taxpayers dollars. You have a lot of horror stories but our processes are so elongated and decision making is so slow. It’s almost a dysfunctional relationship. There are things in space where we must get out of this.

Shaw

-Militaries and government are better at rapidly acquiring military capability and tactics when they are faced with an acute threat. So maybe they aren’t good at it when they don’t have a threat.

-Now that we’re facing threats in the space domain I’m seeing us move a little bit faster. We aren’t where we need to be but we’re heading that direction.

Hyten

-The big guys can go fast and the small guys can go fast but we have to be risk averse and give direction.

Workforce

Shaw

-In 2018 I said for the longest time we had the equivalent of a merchant marine. Once those capabilities come under threat, you now need a Navy. I think the metaphor works.

-How do we start thinking in a warfighting mindset in our domain while also delivering to the first priority which is providing capability terrestrially? I think it’s been a slow transition. We haven’t moved very quickly. Best and sharpest thinkers for this are the younger guardians.

-Space Force is also lacking in training guardians in this respect. China, they’re probably giving pretty rigorous training. If you’re trying to have demanding training for a very highly technical field against a threat, having zero people fail out… if that’s the result… that means either the standards are low or the standards are fine but people are passing when they probably shouldn’t be. Those are indicators we need to be looking at and working harder at.

Hamel

-It’s not about just executing the checklist but making sure we’re delivering.

-What we’re seeing now, the deltas, making sure we have development, AQ, and sustainment is aligned… That to me is a huge mindset and culture shift. It won’t happen overnight but where that can be grown is with the younger workforce.

Hyten

-We’re three old white guys. One thing everyone in this crowd should do is go see all those graduating from basic training. You’ll see the most diverse groups you’ll ever see in your life and they’re all excited about serving their country but when they come into active duty, we wash that thrill and excitement.

-When you come in, you’re competent and you trust each other, great things can happen.  The military is the most color-blind organization. Competence is the most important element in the military and we’ve got to look like the force.

Leveraging Commercial

Hamel

-Points of friction and sometimes outright hostility… who owns what and gets the money and the budget… There’s an enormous amount of choice right now and the pathway is through commercial sources whether that be companies with ideas or companies that produce. It’s exciting and the more we integrate it in, we’re going to have an entirely different look.

Shaw

-We were mostly getting capability from big contractors. In the last decade DOD tried to leverage orgs that are trying to help startups and smaller companies, SpaceWERX, etc. We went to startups because they are cheaper but how do we look at industry as a whole across the spectrum and apply them at the right points. I’m not sure we’re getting after the middle section.

Hyten

-I don’t think we even understand what commercial means. To me, government can go to commercial and they’re something on the shelf that’s already complete and we can just buy it. Another thing, there’s services commercial does we can buy. Another thing, commercial best practices, etc. And then commercial who exist around government demand signals. And then we try to fit all of this into the same model and process.

-It’s not the same for everything. We have to change this fundamental piece.

-It comes down to the requirements. If you don’t get the requirements right you’re screwed.

Fourth Space Age

Shaw

-Third space age, since 2015, all sectors have become interconnected in ways they haven’t been before and we have a threat that all sectors have to acknowledge.

-If there is a new space age, a fourth, there’d have to be inflection points in all the sectors.

Deterrence in Space

Hamel

-I’m a big advocate of having strong alliances and interdependence. A lot is coming out in the policy statements.

Shaw

-Our space capabilities appeared so vulnerable to an adversary that they were incentivized to go after them. The best thing we can do is change the equation and make us not vulnerable and weak but strong and resilient.

-Sustaining maneuver, that’s enhancing resilience. It’s denying first mover advantage. We have to make ourselves as invulnerable as we can in space and if we can do that we might deter a war altogether.

Hyten

-There’s no such thing as space deterrence. There’s just deterrence. You have to do it ground, sea, air, space, nuclear, and it has to all be a part of an integrated message to our adversaries.

What Would You Do Differently

Hamel

-We tend to design very capable systems that are purpose built. This became a strength but also a terrible weakness. We’re seeing an enormous integration challenge. I worry deeply about how everything is going to come together and operate together. I would have been more ruthless in ensuring we have integrated capabilities.

Shaw

-I wish I had been more curious on a broader scale. In the last five months I’ve been retired. I think I’ve learned so much more about commercial than I had in my years. I also wish I had been more curious about our potential adversary and how they’ll be thinking.

[End]