AFA Day 2

AFA Warfare Symposium | Day Two
Date: 4 March 2025

Sense, Decide, Engage: Intelligence Driving Unified Action
Speakers:
Lt Gen Leah Lauderback, Deputy Chief of Sta , ISR and Cyber E ects Operations
Maj Gen Greg Gagnon, Deputy Chief of Space Operations for Intelligence
Greg Ryckman, Deputy Director for Global Integration, DIA

Moderator: Rob Wavra, Partner, McKinsey & Company

Key Takeaways: – The panelists stressed the importance of competing with China. Their rapid
economic and military growth has significantly altered the global balance, with its
defense spending increasing by 7%. – Greg Ryckman shared that analysts can no longer manually analyze all-source
intelligence. He said that this necessitates advanced technology to sort, process,
and translate raw data into actionable insights for warfighters. – The panelists agreed that there needs to be a strong push for a unified and
synchronized intelligence approach, along with data curation, to ensure that all
units and commanders have access to a common, real-time intelligence picture.

On Competing with China:

Maj Gen Greg Gagnon – The number one economy in the world was the US in 2013, but the list below us has
changed in the last 11 years. China was the number two in economy, but their rapid
growth cannot be overstated. Grown 78%. Number two is a lot closer to number one
now. – China’s defense spending has increased by 7%, if you added Japan, Australia, SK,
Taiwan, they would equal the published CCP defense budget. – China’s on orbit assets increased by 600%. – Sometimes it’s not always best to go against an adversary’s strength, sometimes it’s
best to go after their weaknesses. – On China’s fractional orbital bombardment system (FOBS): They’re building a force
that can touch us in the homeland.
Maj Gen Leah Lauderback – –
Our force design is based on the threat from China, our airmen and industry
partners need to understand this threat.
The biggest concern to us is China’s ability to take out air refueling, ISR capabilities.
Greg Ryckman –
The next step for China is to assert themselves globally to where they can change
the world order.
On the Challenge of Data Overload:
Lt Gen Leah Lauderback –
We often talk about targeting at speed, but I think our intelligence problems are
more concerned with scale, the number of objects we need to track etc. We are
drowning in data, and we need intelligence we can trust.
Greg Ryckman – – –
Part of what we’re grappling with, our analysts are swimming in data, and no human
has the ability to be an all source analyst anymore. We need tech to sort through the
data and translate it into information the warfighter can use.
For object-based intelligence: When objects go dynamic, we act like we don’t
remember anything about it when it was at rest. We have to be able to take all that
information and track it at speed and scale.
For a common intelligence picture, it has to be common.
On Collaboration and Data Curation:
Maj Gen Gregory Gagnon – –
DIA is putting the common back in the intel picture which is important for
synchronization across the global picture.
We have been leveraging the commercial sector quite aggressively, for space
situational awareness capabilities. However, information is not intelligence. You
need to do data curation.
Lt Gen Leah Lauderback
– We want to have a shared understanding of this data and it needs to go down to our
units. – We are in lockstep with Greg and his team at DIA, this feeds into our C3 strategy and
Luke Cropsey’s team at C3BM. – It’s not just a matter of being good partners with DIA, but translating that over to our
commanders and contingency intelligence networks.
Greg Ryckman – Part of what has to change is collection management, historically it hasn’t been
dynamic enough. What Cropsey drove home for me was: How do we make sure the
collection is doing what it has to do? – DIA is leading an e ort to bring the community together to deliver on the warfighting
goals that we need to support. – Immediate information needs to be available to the warfighter and then we grow
that trendline as information becomes more available. In a combat situation, a
second matters. Provide data all along the spectrum so a commander can apply the
risk necessary.

Winning Tomorrow with a New Force Design
Speakers:
Lt Gen Dave Harris, Deputy Chief of Sta , Air Force Futures
Maj Gen Joseph Kunkel, Director of Force Design, Integration, and Wargaming
Brig Gen Ryan Keeney, Director of Concepts and Strategy, Deputy Chief of Sta , Air Force
Futures

Moderator: Lt Gen (Ret) Burt Field, President & CEO, AFA

Key Takeaways: – The panelists emphasized the importance of crafting a force design for the future
that emphasizes speed, agility, and responsiveness. – The panelists agreed that integrating joint forces and international allies enhances
e ectiveness, as some allies possess superior capabilities in certain areas. Sharing
analyses, maintaining a coherent warfighting strategy, and collaborative wargaming
are crucial.
On Future Readiness and Adaptation:
Lt Gen Dave Harris – –
We have to be able to deliver decisive power. Our airmen are ready and can respond
to a crisis, our responsibility is to give them the right tools to be successful.
When creating our force design, we assess the gaps between US and China/other
adversaries and ask if this is a gap we need to address. Do I need something brand
new to address the capabilities China is fielding?
Brig Gen Ryan Keeney – – – –
Over the past 35 years, we’ve seen that a dominant Air Force and Space Force is the
way to deterrence. But we have to have access and basing overseas in order to keep
that deterrence and we need to be able to defend those bases.
We need dominance in space and space tracking.
We’re seeing the rise of autonomy and AI and the increasing range of long range
weapons—this is threatening the American way of life.
Speed, agility, and responsiveness are our core competencies.
Maj Gen Joseph Kunkel –
On Joint and Allied Cooperation:
Brig Gen Ryan Keeney
As you look towards the future, the Air Force needs to be retooled for a future
environment. We’re building that force that we’re going to take into the next 30
years. – –
Each wargame we learn something and we tweak and go back. We’re iterating and
trying to get capabilities out to the warfighter faster.
There are things that our allies do better than us as a US AF, we need to bring them
in.
Maj Gen Joseph Kunkel – –
There’s a tendency to just look at Air Force capabilities, but you’re missing out on
the magic of the joint forces.
We’ve got some asymmetric capabilities that can really deny, delay, and disrupt in
new ways the Air Force hasn’t done.
– We need to share our analyses with our joint partners, allies, and leaders on the Hill.
If you lead with a coherent warfighting story, that’s when you see a change.

On Budget Constraints and Strategic Planning:

Lt Gen Dave Harris – The 8% is going to be hard for every service, it’s a significant cut, these are real war
winning capabilities that we have to think about. – If you take year by year budgets and the only thing I can plan to is the topline budget,
I’m never going to be able to tell you “here’s what it takes to win.”
Maj Gen Joseph Kunkel – Fiscal constraints don’t define what it takes to win. – We can tell what the war is going to look like based on a certain level of funding, it
comes down to the type of risk America wants.

USSF Future Objectives and International Partnerships
Speakers:
Air Marshal Paul Godfrey, Assistant Chief of Space Operations, Future Concepts and
Partnerships, USSF
Lt Gen Shawn Bratton, Deputy Chief of Space Operations, Strategy, Plans, Programs and
Requirements
Maj Gen Dennis Bythewood, Special Assistant to the Chief of Space Operations

Key Takeaways: – USSF plays a role in the Golden Dome initiative and is working hard to meet the
President’s intent.

On Organization Stand-Up:

Lt Gen Shawn Bratton – When does benefit outweigh the risk…We have not been great about that. We drop a
lot of things, without all the support options…
Air Marshal Paul Godfrey
–
To get a program over the budget line, have to have put down ten year period for
training personnel and infrastructure. It’s a big budget and a big training
burden…Things done now electric optional, synthetic aperture radar…Next
development [is] software…iterating pretty quickly…see mature space
commands…standing up Australia and Canda…Most of allied space commands,
understand what squadron size do you need …looking for U.S. to determine…start
getting into using AI and becoming more e icient, reduce the footprint size and
cost.
On Software Driven Focus:
Lt Gen Shawn Bratton –
Human capitol piece, still have to absorb 2nd Lt’s and enlisted guardians and get
them exposed to operations…easiest job to automate…reduce size of
crews…doesn’t always lead to most e ective force…still need exposure to
warfighting…where do you go to learn the fundamentals…exposure to competition
and conflict …
Maj Gen Dennis Bythewood –
Air Marshal Paul Godfrey
IMD to bring back operations and all elements to driving readiness…software
readiness…need to be cognizant of systems that enable that . Barriers tend to be
systems deltas, and all of that team has to work together…its really the underlying
data, massive amounts of commercial data…Target data, terrestrial operations, on
orbit operations and provide information you can use…critical to trust, something
still have to dive through and understand thoroughly. –
IMD’s and SMD’s will be really key in this in terms of getting through those barriers,
getting software in the hands of operators as early as can so can integrate…use
prototype of mission planning software….[Also] information sharing and
classification…need to be specific in areas. Not going to give up everything… most
allied space commands, don’t have huge budgets…without understanding what is
available especially U.S. companies, have to go invent ourselves going to take
money going take time. Objective force comes in, where do we want allies and
partners to concentrate on…possibility in buying in and codeveloping these sort of
things…do need to be specific and prioritize
On Allies and Partner Integration:
Lt Gen Shawn Bratton –
Framework use…objective force of 2030 or 2035…think need to defeat adversary
based on the intel getting…I know what I need…I can’t a ord it all…allied and
partner piece, opportunity to build those gaps if tightly coupled with or allies…
Air Marshal Paul Godfrey –
Developing a process that isn’t byzantine complex…understanding what allies and
partners have to o er…than matching it to what need to develop the force…that’s
what need to work on…Here are some areas want to concentrate…Starting to come
together with operators, SSC, SpOC. Think [in a] good place for taking this forward.
Maj Gen Dennis Bythewood –
Innovation, a lot happened taking place in commercial market still bringing into the
military department. One angle of that is still being open to that…a lot of barriers to
that, because bringing into closed systems…spent last couple of years looking at
how to break open those architectures. That allows for a lot of small-scale
innovations…looking to build a process and a system that allow us to go
forward…what is the operating environment…that might be closed…how trends
impact operations…where we see technological advances playing in the
architectures that we think will win… [do this in] wargaming, space domain
awareness, joint space operations team…might learn there are gaps…need to be
doing across the entire architecture…Where are key touchpoints where have to
make trades…technology is available but may not yet needed…when is the right
time to bring into the architecture…[need] continual interaction with the acquisition
teams…
On the Golden Dome:
Maj Gen Dennis Bythewood –
As look at architectures that driving, [considering the] national imperative like
Golden Dome. Where are technological things working…global sensing
communications to ground architecture, and others…still a lot of work to do…many
foundational elements…what are the risk based pieces…where do we need to drive
investment in terms of driving down?
Lt Gen Shawn Bratton – Process, priorities don’t change…President says go do Iron Dome/Golden
Dome…got to get after it…60 days to figure out architecture, how to solve that on
own…work side by side with those teammate…USSF a lot of the sensing from
space…space based sensing and targeting…what can those things see…does that
contribute to nations solution for Golden Dome?…owe an answer to the Secretary of
Defense…have to deliver on these capabilities…how much this is going to cost…
Air Marshal Paul Godfrey – Remember the international partners…everything doing in day jobs, clearly there is a
huge focus…Biggest thing is how does the DoD bringing it together…what are
international opportunities…Integrated Air and Missile Defense, is clearly a huge
thing…Great that there is a very specific look at ta capability air and missile defense.
Huge opportunities for allies and partners to contribute to this and as a result get
the benefit of a Golden Dome.

Closing Thoughts:

Lt Gen Shawn Bratton – Have to be able to scale up these things. [For example] the VICTUS series that SSC
has, rapid launch/delivery capability…need to be able to do that now at scale in
conflict…room full just the best, with industry…do something once…that needs to
be at scale just like AF, Marine Corp, Army, and Navy every single day.

Integrating Space to the Global Fight

Speakers:
Lt Gen Douglas Schiess, United States Space Command’s Combined Joint Force Space
Component Commander
Brig Gen Anthony Mastalir, Commander US Space Forces Indo-Pacific
Brig Gen Jacob Middleton, Commander US Space Forces EUROCOM and AFRICOM
Col Christopher Putman, Commander US Space Forces CENTCOM

Key Takeaways:
–
As various components stand up at the COCOM in support of space, realism in
military exercises as well as securing personnel remains important. The growth of
the capability and presence of China applies not just to the Indo-Pacific, but all of
the COCOMs. –
USSF continues to work to expand commercial partnerships through areas like the
Commercial Integration Cell and the Joint Commercial O ice.
On Challenges in AOR:
Brig Gen Anthony Mastalir –
Increased capability that China is bring in space domain on orbit and counter
capabilities…challenge in Indo-Pacific…China is also racing towards parity in other
domains…need both space and air superiority…need to establish space superiority
…the other components depend on the Space Force more than ever to provide that
protection…that’s a challenge that we have…A scale issue and also ensuring able to
meet that challenge.
Brig Gen Jacob Middleton –
Col Christopher Putman
Challenge I have, every other component has a space dependency…those
dependencies become my space requirements…
Lt Gen Doug Schiess –
Taken on some new responsibilities with NORTHCOM with priorities of
administration…defining how working in INDOPACOM…protecting the joint
warfighters from Space enabled attack…CSO ability to degrade, deny and
disrupt…Chinese developing a kill web…Russia is also getting after things they can… –
Challenge in CENTCOM is challenge of the Houthis shot at naval warship…while
challenge, an opportunity to integrate Space across all the warfighters…on a
somewhat smaller scale…get sets and reps in across all components…opportunity
take that and share those lessons learned.
On Lessons Learned:
Col Christopher Putman
–
Delta between April and October lightyears improved…component back home and
in theater solve focused on space missions…implement changes that directly
impact ability to a ect…
Maj Gen Doug Schiess –
First night Russia their attack in Ukraine…kinetic events all being registered by
overhead…what are things can do from a TTP perspective…great acquisition
folks…work with SPOC and SSC to get after next…[Thinking about] AI/ML and
ITWA…taking to that challenge to be able to do…
Brig Gen Anthony Mastalir –
Are we training and exercising at the right level. Am I ensuring that those
guardians…stressing them that the right training scenarios…
On Growth of USSF Indo-Pacific:
Brig Gen Anthony Mastalir –
What we started with we knew not going to be enough to sustain what needed to
achieve…80 uniform guardians…LNO’s and National Guard…unique skillsets…don’t
have in Space Force…pushing closer to 100…done all the mission
analysis…including bringing out joint capabilities command…where is the guardian
contributing to the joint force…Looking at HQ size of somewhere between 400 and
500 defined what right looks like space…need space planning teams…beginning of a
surge model for the Space Force, need that additional support to flow in…critical
missions that we moved to space, space based MTI, proliferated warfighter space
architecture, link 16 from Space, none of these ambiguous from the
onset…understanding the priorities and objectives are and integrate those with the
global provider…understanding the space dependencies…space domain degrading
and now no longer…model that degradation and report back to other
commanders…get in theater so warfighters have access to that data
On the New Command:
Brig Gen Jacob Middleton –
Running the same thing…when there is a resource limitation, where does it hurt,
inaccurately exercising what it’s going to look like when get into conflict…we are
briefing up the chain…each component is briefing their part of this…challenge have
to have realism into the exercise. What I have been doing is going to other
components…here is your space dependency…what do you want us to invest us in…
Wishing had more people at certain times.
Col Christopher Putman –
CENTCOM all about the 5 meter fight, focused on 24/7 on the current fight… …lack
of people really hurting me is the international engagement piece…think of FVEY’s,
but deep desire for space faring nations in CENTCOM, don’t have the people to
maintain those relationships…hurting us by not having the people to maintain these
relationships.
On International Engagement:
Brig Gen Anthony Mastalir –
International engagement, S5 almost always on the road engaging with other
nations…something didn’t think about Indo-PACOM certainly in EUCOM have a lot
of folks that want to bring capability and demonstrate…got unattainable…one voice
for space memo…if you are going to bring something in this AOR…if its space
coordinate with space component commander…what’s going to PEM, what’s going
to Japan, what’s coming out at various space locations, some understanding to
integrate along INDO-PACOM…want vendors to come in…helpful to have the
component be that front door when its space related….it is a constant steady
stream of vendors and industrial baes that want to meet and talk about capabilities
in the AOR
On Working with Other Components like Cyber:
Col Christopher Putman –
Back to lack of people, number one priority is to have LNO embedded across all the
components. Cross domain integration…before got into the AOR flew team
guardians/soldiers to carrier planning the operation…what carrier strike group can
bring and what space CENTCOM can bring…that’s a relationship have to nurture and
continue to work with.
Lt Gen Doug Schiess
–
1) Other components of USSPACECOM…Responsibility from me from a joint
planning process…they bring di erent capabilities…tactical control, have to work
together with them…2) cyber two other components…not only the space
component but also the cyber….another capability can work together…working with
all other nations, we are as well working with Operational Olympic Defender…now
also France, Germany, o icially today New Zealand as well…that adds complexity to
that conversation…
Brig Gen Jacob Middleton –
Can’t do what we do without USSPACECOM…that coordination is really
important…may be unique, basic intermediate and advanced targeting we are
leveraging not just all of components, 1st space brigade, del 7, trying to set up a
focal point in Colorado Springs so get everyone’s interest…so we can deconflict but
also integrate that capability…
Brig Gen Anthony Mastalir –
On Commercial:
Brig Gen Anthony Mastalir –
Dismantling the red kill chain…Talk about being able to protect the joint force from
space attack…scheme and maneuver necessary to achieve those objectives…think
number to ASATs roll out…somebody has to project power…when we are going to
talk to folks in other services in INDOPACOM…target taking away your space
capabilities to closer your blue chains…if space component doesn’t bring that to
the table, who is going to bring that.
All sharing this space…we have a pilot that conducting several rounds
understanding how to provide that type of imagery from space to underserved users
within the command. Reality is COCOM…the priority user does not get all
commercial imagery that it wants or needs…some of that developed muscle
memory in terms of what asking for national technical means (NTM) and other
capabilities…some will say that’s not a priority…reality commercial opens up that
envelope quite a bit…Understand how to integrate that into a process…take full
advantage of what commercial is able to bring to us…working a lot right now
commercial AI…trickling down to all components…take some of the pain out of the
manning issues…can do things AI enabled…
Brig Gen Jacob Middleton
–
Legacy construct with NTM, very exquisite systems limited…if have a requirement
that is not being covered by priorities need to speak up so push on system and cover
more things…by product of Space Force being created because do more on Intel
side and statutory side…letting commercial take over that makes it di icult for
adversaries targeting scheme…concentrating on things military unique
requirements…need to get intelligence on tactical level when needed…
Lt Gen Doug Schiess –
Commercial di erent trying to support them…Areas talked about is TACSRT and
Joint Commercial O ice…Space domain awareness go out to market place…how
we can do that for them, so that can be easier for them…exercises put that into the
processes there…other thing in S4S is Commercial Integration Cell (CIC) 16
companies cleared folks at TS/SCI flying SATCOM, imagers, or SDA capabilities and
we can provide them with threat information so we can work together…give us that
threat and then provide that out to all of those companies…