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SUMMARY:AFA Day 2
DESCRIPTION:AFA Warfare Symposium | Day Two\nDate: 4 March 2025\nSense, Decide, Engage: Intelligence Driving Unified Action\nSpeakers:\nLt Gen Leah Lauderback, Deputy Chief of Sta , ISR and Cyber E ects Operations\nMaj Gen Greg Gagnon, Deputy Chief of Space Operations for Intelligence\nGreg Ryckman, Deputy Director for Global Integration, DIA\nModerator: Rob Wavra, Partner, McKinsey & Company\nKey Takeaways: – The panelists stressed the importance of competing with China. Their rapid\neconomic and military growth has significantly altered the global balance, with its\ndefense spending increasing by 7%. – Greg Ryckman shared that analysts can no longer manually analyze all-source\nintelligence. He said that this necessitates advanced technology to sort, process,\nand translate raw data into actionable insights for warfighters. – The panelists agreed that there needs to be a strong push for a unified and\nsynchronized intelligence approach, along with data curation, to ensure that all\nunits and commanders have access to a common, real-time intelligence picture.\nOn Competing with China:\nMaj Gen Greg Gagnon – The number one economy in the world was the US in 2013, but the list below us has\nchanged in the last 11 years. China was the number two in economy, but their rapid\ngrowth cannot be overstated. Grown 78%. Number two is a lot closer to number one\nnow. – China’s defense spending has increased by 7%, if you added Japan, Australia, SK,\nTaiwan, they would equal the published CCP defense budget. – China’s on orbit assets increased by 600%. – Sometimes it’s not always best to go against an adversary’s strength, sometimes it’s\nbest to go after their weaknesses. – On China’s fractional orbital bombardment system (FOBS): They’re building a force\nthat can touch us in the homeland.\nMaj Gen Leah Lauderback – –\nOur force design is based on the threat from China, our airmen and industry\npartners need to understand this threat.\nThe biggest concern to us is China’s ability to take out air refueling, ISR capabilities.\nGreg Ryckman –\nThe next step for China is to assert themselves globally to where they can change\nthe world order.\nOn the Challenge of Data Overload:\nLt Gen Leah Lauderback –\nWe often talk about targeting at speed, but I think our intelligence problems are\nmore concerned with scale, the number of objects we need to track etc. We are\ndrowning in data, and we need intelligence we can trust.\nGreg Ryckman – – –\nPart of what we’re grappling with, our analysts are swimming in data, and no human\nhas the ability to be an all source analyst anymore. We need tech to sort through the\ndata and translate it into information the warfighter can use.\nFor object-based intelligence: When objects go dynamic, we act like we don’t\nremember anything about it when it was at rest. We have to be able to take all that\ninformation and track it at speed and scale.\nFor a common intelligence picture, it has to be common.\nOn Collaboration and Data Curation:\nMaj Gen Gregory Gagnon – –\nDIA is putting the common back in the intel picture which is important for\nsynchronization across the global picture.\nWe have been leveraging the commercial sector quite aggressively, for space\nsituational awareness capabilities. However, information is not intelligence. You\nneed to do data curation.\nLt Gen Leah Lauderback\n– We want to have a shared understanding of this data and it needs to go down to our\nunits. – We are in lockstep with Greg and his team at DIA, this feeds into our C3 strategy and\nLuke Cropsey’s team at C3BM. – It’s not just a matter of being good partners with DIA, but translating that over to our\ncommanders and contingency intelligence networks.\nGreg Ryckman – Part of what has to change is collection management, historically it hasn’t been\ndynamic enough. What Cropsey drove home for me was: How do we make sure the\ncollection is doing what it has to do? – DIA is leading an e ort to bring the community together to deliver on the warfighting\ngoals that we need to support. – Immediate information needs to be available to the warfighter and then we grow\nthat trendline as information becomes more available. In a combat situation, a\nsecond matters. Provide data all along the spectrum so a commander can apply the\nrisk necessary.\nWinning Tomorrow with a New Force Design\nSpeakers:\nLt Gen Dave Harris, Deputy Chief of Sta , Air Force Futures\nMaj Gen Joseph Kunkel, Director of Force Design, Integration, and Wargaming\nBrig Gen Ryan Keeney, Director of Concepts and Strategy, Deputy Chief of Sta , Air Force\nFutures\nModerator: Lt Gen (Ret) Burt Field, President & CEO, AFA\nKey Takeaways: – The panelists emphasized the importance of crafting a force design for the future\nthat emphasizes speed, agility, and responsiveness. – The panelists agreed that integrating joint forces and international allies enhances\ne ectiveness, as some allies possess superior capabilities in certain areas. Sharing\nanalyses, maintaining a coherent warfighting strategy, and collaborative wargaming\nare crucial.\nOn Future Readiness and Adaptation:\nLt Gen Dave Harris – –\nWe have to be able to deliver decisive power. Our airmen are ready and can respond\nto a crisis, our responsibility is to give them the right tools to be successful.\nWhen creating our force design, we assess the gaps between US and China/other\nadversaries and ask if this is a gap we need to address. Do I need something brand\nnew to address the capabilities China is fielding?\nBrig Gen Ryan Keeney – – – –\nOver the past 35 years, we’ve seen that a dominant Air Force and Space Force is the\nway to deterrence. But we have to have access and basing overseas in order to keep\nthat deterrence and we need to be able to defend those bases.\nWe need dominance in space and space tracking.\nWe’re seeing the rise of autonomy and AI and the increasing range of long range\nweapons—this is threatening the American way of life.\nSpeed, agility, and responsiveness are our core competencies.\nMaj Gen Joseph Kunkel –\nOn Joint and Allied Cooperation:\nBrig Gen Ryan Keeney\nAs you look towards the future, the Air Force needs to be retooled for a future\nenvironment. We’re building that force that we’re going to take into the next 30\nyears. – –\nEach wargame we learn something and we tweak and go back. We’re iterating and\ntrying to get capabilities out to the warfighter faster.\nThere are things that our allies do better than us as a US AF, we need to bring them\nin.\nMaj Gen Joseph Kunkel – –\nThere’s a tendency to just look at Air Force capabilities, but you’re missing out on\nthe magic of the joint forces.\nWe’ve got some asymmetric capabilities that can really deny, delay, and disrupt in\nnew ways the Air Force hasn’t done.\n– We need to share our analyses with our joint partners, allies, and leaders on the Hill.\nIf you lead with a coherent warfighting story, that’s when you see a change.\nOn Budget Constraints and Strategic Planning:\nLt Gen Dave Harris – The 8% is going to be hard for every service, it’s a significant cut, these are real war\nwinning capabilities that we have to think about. – If you take year by year budgets and the only thing I can plan to is the topline budget,\nI’m never going to be able to tell you “here’s what it takes to win.”\nMaj Gen Joseph Kunkel – Fiscal constraints don’t define what it takes to win. – We can tell what the war is going to look like based on a certain level of funding, it\ncomes down to the type of risk America wants.\nUSSF Future Objectives and International Partnerships\nSpeakers:\nAir Marshal Paul Godfrey, Assistant Chief of Space Operations, Future Concepts and\nPartnerships, USSF\nLt Gen Shawn Bratton, Deputy Chief of Space Operations, Strategy, Plans, Programs and\nRequirements\nMaj Gen Dennis Bythewood, Special Assistant to the Chief of Space Operations\nKey Takeaways: – USSF plays a role in the Golden Dome initiative and is working hard to meet the\nPresident’s intent.\nOn Organization Stand-Up:\nLt Gen Shawn Bratton – When does benefit outweigh the risk…We have not been great about that. We drop a\nlot of things, without all the support options…\nAir Marshal Paul Godfrey\n–\nTo get a program over the budget line, have to have put down ten year period for\ntraining personnel and infrastructure. It’s a big budget and a big training\nburden…Things done now electric optional, synthetic aperture radar…Next\ndevelopment [is] software…iterating pretty quickly…see mature space\ncommands…standing up Australia and Canda…Most of allied space commands,\nunderstand what squadron size do you need …looking for U.S. to determine…start\ngetting into using AI and becoming more e icient, reduce the footprint size and\ncost.\nOn Software Driven Focus:\nLt Gen Shawn Bratton –\nHuman capitol piece, still have to absorb 2nd Lt’s and enlisted guardians and get\nthem exposed to operations…easiest job to automate…reduce size of\ncrews…doesn’t always lead to most e ective force…still need exposure to\nwarfighting…where do you go to learn the fundamentals…exposure to competition\nand conflict …\nMaj Gen Dennis Bythewood –\nAir Marshal Paul Godfrey\nIMD to bring back operations and all elements to driving readiness…software\nreadiness…need to be cognizant of systems that enable that . Barriers tend to be\nsystems deltas, and all of that team has to work together…its really the underlying\ndata, massive amounts of commercial data…Target data, terrestrial operations, on\norbit operations and provide information you can use…critical to trust, something\nstill have to dive through and understand thoroughly. –\nIMD’s and SMD’s will be really key in this in terms of getting through those barriers,\ngetting software in the hands of operators as early as can so can integrate…use\nprototype of mission planning software….[Also] information sharing and\nclassification…need to be specific in areas. Not going to give up everything… most\nallied space commands, don’t have huge budgets…without understanding what is\navailable especially U.S. companies, have to go invent ourselves going to take\nmoney going take time. Objective force comes in, where do we want allies and\npartners to concentrate on…possibility in buying in and codeveloping these sort of\nthings…do need to be specific and prioritize\nOn Allies and Partner Integration:\nLt Gen Shawn Bratton –\nFramework use…objective force of 2030 or 2035…think need to defeat adversary\nbased on the intel getting…I know what I need…I can’t a ord it all…allied and\npartner piece, opportunity to build those gaps if tightly coupled with or allies…\nAir Marshal Paul Godfrey –\nDeveloping a process that isn’t byzantine complex…understanding what allies and\npartners have to o er…than matching it to what need to develop the force…that’s\nwhat need to work on…Here are some areas want to concentrate…Starting to come\ntogether with operators, SSC, SpOC. Think [in a] good place for taking this forward.\nMaj Gen Dennis Bythewood –\nInnovation, a lot happened taking place in commercial market still bringing into the\nmilitary department. One angle of that is still being open to that…a lot of barriers to\nthat, because bringing into closed systems…spent last couple of years looking at\nhow to break open those architectures. That allows for a lot of small-scale\ninnovations…looking to build a process and a system that allow us to go\nforward…what is the operating environment…that might be closed…how trends\nimpact operations…where we see technological advances playing in the\narchitectures that we think will win… [do this in] wargaming, space domain\nawareness, joint space operations team…might learn there are gaps…need to be\ndoing across the entire architecture…Where are key touchpoints where have to\nmake trades…technology is available but may not yet needed…when is the right\ntime to bring into the architecture…[need] continual interaction with the acquisition\nteams…\nOn the Golden Dome:\nMaj Gen Dennis Bythewood –\nAs look at architectures that driving, [considering the] national imperative like\nGolden Dome. Where are technological things working…global sensing\ncommunications to ground architecture, and others…still a lot of work to do…many\nfoundational elements…what are the risk based pieces…where do we need to drive\ninvestment in terms of driving down?\nLt Gen Shawn Bratton – Process, priorities don’t change…President says go do Iron Dome/Golden\nDome…got to get after it…60 days to figure out architecture, how to solve that on\nown…work side by side with those teammate…USSF a lot of the sensing from\nspace…space based sensing and targeting…what can those things see…does that\ncontribute to nations solution for Golden Dome?…owe an answer to the Secretary of\nDefense…have to deliver on these capabilities…how much this is going to cost…\nAir Marshal Paul Godfrey – Remember the international partners…everything doing in day jobs, clearly there is a\nhuge focus…Biggest thing is how does the DoD bringing it together…what are\ninternational opportunities…Integrated Air and Missile Defense, is clearly a huge\nthing…Great that there is a very specific look at ta capability air and missile defense.\nHuge opportunities for allies and partners to contribute to this and as a result get\nthe benefit of a Golden Dome.\nClosing Thoughts:\nLt Gen Shawn Bratton – Have to be able to scale up these things. [For example] the VICTUS series that SSC\nhas, rapid launch/delivery capability…need to be able to do that now at scale in\nconflict…room full just the best, with industry…do something once…that needs to\nbe at scale just like AF, Marine Corp, Army, and Navy every single day.\nIntegrating Space to the Global Fight\nSpeakers:\nLt Gen Douglas Schiess, United States Space Command’s Combined Joint Force Space\nComponent Commander\nBrig Gen Anthony Mastalir, Commander US Space Forces Indo-Pacific\nBrig Gen Jacob Middleton, Commander US Space Forces EUROCOM and AFRICOM\nCol Christopher Putman, Commander US Space Forces CENTCOM\nKey Takeaways:\n–\nAs various components stand up at the COCOM in support of space, realism in\nmilitary exercises as well as securing personnel remains important. The growth of\nthe capability and presence of China applies not just to the Indo-Pacific, but all of\nthe COCOMs. –\nUSSF continues to work to expand commercial partnerships through areas like the\nCommercial Integration Cell and the Joint Commercial O ice.\nOn Challenges in AOR:\nBrig Gen Anthony Mastalir –\nIncreased capability that China is bring in space domain on orbit and counter\ncapabilities…challenge in Indo-Pacific…China is also racing towards parity in other\ndomains…need both space and air superiority…need to establish space superiority\n…the other components depend on the Space Force more than ever to provide that\nprotection…that’s a challenge that we have…A scale issue and also ensuring able to\nmeet that challenge.\nBrig Gen Jacob Middleton –\nCol Christopher Putman\nChallenge I have, every other component has a space dependency…those\ndependencies become my space requirements…\nLt Gen Doug Schiess –\nTaken on some new responsibilities with NORTHCOM with priorities of\nadministration…defining how working in INDOPACOM…protecting the joint\nwarfighters from Space enabled attack…CSO ability to degrade, deny and\ndisrupt…Chinese developing a kill web…Russia is also getting after things they can… –\nChallenge in CENTCOM is challenge of the Houthis shot at naval warship…while\nchallenge, an opportunity to integrate Space across all the warfighters…on a\nsomewhat smaller scale…get sets and reps in across all components…opportunity\ntake that and share those lessons learned.\nOn Lessons Learned:\nCol Christopher Putman\n–\nDelta between April and October lightyears improved…component back home and\nin theater solve focused on space missions…implement changes that directly\nimpact ability to a ect…\nMaj Gen Doug Schiess –\nFirst night Russia their attack in Ukraine…kinetic events all being registered by\noverhead…what are things can do from a TTP perspective…great acquisition\nfolks…work with SPOC and SSC to get after next…[Thinking about] AI/ML and\nITWA…taking to that challenge to be able to do…\nBrig Gen Anthony Mastalir –\nAre we training and exercising at the right level. Am I ensuring that those\nguardians…stressing them that the right training scenarios…\nOn Growth of USSF Indo-Pacific:\nBrig Gen Anthony Mastalir –\nWhat we started with we knew not going to be enough to sustain what needed to\nachieve…80 uniform guardians…LNO’s and National Guard…unique skillsets…don’t\nhave in Space Force…pushing closer to 100…done all the mission\nanalysis…including bringing out joint capabilities command…where is the guardian\ncontributing to the joint force…Looking at HQ size of somewhere between 400 and\n500 defined what right looks like space…need space planning teams…beginning of a\nsurge model for the Space Force, need that additional support to flow in…critical\nmissions that we moved to space, space based MTI, proliferated warfighter space\narchitecture, link 16 from Space, none of these ambiguous from the\nonset…understanding the priorities and objectives are and integrate those with the\nglobal provider…understanding the space dependencies…space domain degrading\nand now no longer…model that degradation and report back to other\ncommanders…get in theater so warfighters have access to that data\nOn the New Command:\nBrig Gen Jacob Middleton –\nRunning the same thing…when there is a resource limitation, where does it hurt,\ninaccurately exercising what it’s going to look like when get into conflict…we are\nbriefing up the chain…each component is briefing their part of this…challenge have\nto have realism into the exercise. What I have been doing is going to other\ncomponents…here is your space dependency…what do you want us to invest us in…\nWishing had more people at certain times.\nCol Christopher Putman –\nCENTCOM all about the 5 meter fight, focused on 24/7 on the current fight… …lack\nof people really hurting me is the international engagement piece…think of FVEY’s,\nbut deep desire for space faring nations in CENTCOM, don’t have the people to\nmaintain those relationships…hurting us by not having the people to maintain these\nrelationships.\nOn International Engagement:\nBrig Gen Anthony Mastalir –\nInternational engagement, S5 almost always on the road engaging with other\nnations…something didn’t think about Indo-PACOM certainly in EUCOM have a lot\nof folks that want to bring capability and demonstrate…got unattainable…one voice\nfor space memo…if you are going to bring something in this AOR…if its space\ncoordinate with space component commander…what’s going to PEM, what’s going\nto Japan, what’s coming out at various space locations, some understanding to\nintegrate along INDO-PACOM…want vendors to come in…helpful to have the\ncomponent be that front door when its space related….it is a constant steady\nstream of vendors and industrial baes that want to meet and talk about capabilities\nin the AOR\nOn Working with Other Components like Cyber:\nCol Christopher Putman –\nBack to lack of people, number one priority is to have LNO embedded across all the\ncomponents. Cross domain integration…before got into the AOR flew team\nguardians/soldiers to carrier planning the operation…what carrier strike group can\nbring and what space CENTCOM can bring…that’s a relationship have to nurture and\ncontinue to work with.\nLt Gen Doug Schiess\n–\n1) Other components of USSPACECOM…Responsibility from me from a joint\nplanning process…they bring di erent capabilities…tactical control, have to work\ntogether with them…2) cyber two other components…not only the space\ncomponent but also the cyber….another capability can work together…working with\nall other nations, we are as well working with Operational Olympic Defender…now\nalso France, Germany, o icially today New Zealand as well…that adds complexity to\nthat conversation…\nBrig Gen Jacob Middleton –\nCan’t do what we do without USSPACECOM…that coordination is really\nimportant…may be unique, basic intermediate and advanced targeting we are\nleveraging not just all of components, 1st space brigade, del 7, trying to set up a\nfocal point in Colorado Springs so get everyone’s interest…so we can deconflict but\nalso integrate that capability…\nBrig Gen Anthony Mastalir –\nOn Commercial:\nBrig Gen Anthony Mastalir –\nDismantling the red kill chain…Talk about being able to protect the joint force from\nspace attack…scheme and maneuver necessary to achieve those objectives…think\nnumber to ASATs roll out…somebody has to project power…when we are going to\ntalk to folks in other services in INDOPACOM…target taking away your space\ncapabilities to closer your blue chains…if space component doesn’t bring that to\nthe table, who is going to bring that.\nAll sharing this space…we have a pilot that conducting several rounds\nunderstanding how to provide that type of imagery from space to underserved users\nwithin the command. Reality is COCOM…the priority user does not get all\ncommercial imagery that it wants or needs…some of that developed muscle\nmemory in terms of what asking for national technical means (NTM) and other\ncapabilities…some will say that’s not a priority…reality commercial opens up that\nenvelope quite a bit…Understand how to integrate that into a process…take full\nadvantage of what commercial is able to bring to us…working a lot right now\ncommercial AI…trickling down to all components…take some of the pain out of the\nmanning issues…can do things AI enabled…\nBrig Gen Jacob Middleton\n–\nLegacy construct with NTM, very exquisite systems limited…if have a requirement\nthat is not being covered by priorities need to speak up so push on system and cover\nmore things…by product of Space Force being created because do more on Intel\nside and statutory side…letting commercial take over that makes it di icult for\nadversaries targeting scheme…concentrating on things military unique\nrequirements…need to get intelligence on tactical level when needed…\nLt Gen Doug Schiess –\nCommercial di erent trying to support them…Areas talked about is TACSRT and\nJoint Commercial O ice…Space domain awareness go out to market place…how\nwe can do that for them, so that can be easier for them…exercises put that into the\nprocesses there…other thing in S4S is Commercial Integration Cell (CIC) 16\ncompanies cleared folks at TS/SCI flying SATCOM, imagers, or SDA capabilities and\nwe can provide them with threat information so we can work together…give us that\nthreat and then provide that out to all of those companies…\n
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